Tuesday, December 16, 2008

Where you goin' with that UB-40 in your hand?

Something is not quite right here. I constantly hear that's there's a LOT of people out of work these days. More than usual. Much more than expected. And worse yet, there's more to follow in the coming months. Most companies that are planning massive layoffs are only waiting until after the holidays so as to not appear like Scrooge, but you know they would prefer to do it now and close their books on this year asap. Tonight on CNBC they were talking about a guy in California that is at the point of losing his house to foreclosure, and it's mostly due to him losing his job earlier this year. He also owns three rentals, and all three tenants have lost their jobs, too, so he's getting no relief. He's appealed to his state and local government for assistance, and what do they do? They establish a public hearing to listen to his story and the plight of other similar Sad Sacks. Needless to say, the poor guy is not expecting much to come out of it for another 8-10 months, and he's at a loss as to what's he's supposed to do while they talk amongst themselves.
You may be aware that California is not exactly raking in the revenues right now; the Governator is appealing to anyone that will listen that the state is in need of some type of bailout funds. Of course, this went over well with other states in similar straits, so they quickly chimed in with their hat in hand, too.
What concerns me is that we seem to be heading into the Perfect Storm: A very high debt service, thanks to allocated bailout funds, but less-than average revenue sources due to unexpected high unemployment. And the POTUS-e is concerned that the Fed has played all remaining trump cards prior to his coming into office, which doesn't help him with his plans to resurrect the economy, thus firmly establishing his legacy as the Savior of the Country. Are you saying that the 'publicans are purposely not going out of their way to help Obama get a running start to cure the nation's ills? What a surprise. But hey, that's the way the game is played. The Clintonites did the same if not worse to the incoming Bush administration, and so on down the line. I'd suggest to Obama that he not get so hot under the collar about the current administration's agenda for the next 30 days, and instead focus on how to fix or mend it all on January 21st.
I predict that this holiday season will see a surprise surge in spending, but it could be due to people thinking they need to go out with a bang. Then again, I see many people every day in my job that have great credit, great equity established in their homes, and great income, so I'd say that most Americans are getting it right. The challenge will be to not allow the tail to wag the dog, i.e. not let the 4% or 5% "less-than" perfect Americans sway the rest of the nation into a deeper recession. There are many ways to reduce the unemployment numbers, but it takes courage to implement them. Who's going to blink first?

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