Smoke 'em if you got 'em

Dow just opened 5 minutes ago and is already down over 600 points. We are now below 8000. This is looking more and more like a crash instead of a major correction. Panic is starting to overtake fear. It's like we're swimming in a pool of black water and we know there's a bottom to it, we just can't see it and therefore we don't know if we're in the shallow end or the deep end. The talking heads on CNBC are dazed. Business professionals know that the first rule of the markets is to keep your emotions in check and never let them see you sweat, but there's lots of people on the floor that are very testy today. Seven negative days in a row, working on number Eight! In one way, it's a good thing that it's Friday because there's no open market tomorrow. On the other hand, Friday is always used as the day to break bad news and let emotions cool a few days before starting up again on Monday. Speaking of Monday, it's a holiday, so we could see major settlements by the end of the day. Keep an eye on the markets around 3pm -- that's the magic hour lately when the markets turn south. Will GM survive today?

And then there were four...

Congrats to the Sawks for taking out the Halos last night. By the way the Angels' players are reacting, you would think there's a bunch of sour grapes being served in their clubhouse: "We lost to a team that's not better than us," growled pitcher John Lackey, who gave up two runs and seven hits in seven innings. "We are a better team than they are. The last two days, we shouldn't have given up anything." "I'm [ticked], I'm upset, this one's going to be with me for a while," Torii Hunter said. "It doesn't feel good, because we're a better team than they are. But they're moving on." I agree that the Angels underachieved. As for the Cubs, well, they just choked in the limelight. Usually the Dodgers are the chokers, but I think that they've been so far removed from the playoffs that they didn't feel the pressure of high expectations that the Cubs felt. Funny how the two teams with the best regular-season records are bounced out of the playoffs, 6 games to 1, and 4 of those 6 were on their home fields.

The Rays are a breath of fresh air, but sometimes that air is filled with pollen that we central air breathers are not used to and it makes us sick. I would not be surprised to see them crumble under the weight, but then again, they could be this year's Florida Marlins and steamroll thru the playoffs before they wake up and realize where they are. Given that they're playing the hard-charging in-your-face Sawks, I foresee a few smackdowns in thie ALCS, so grab your popcorn....The Phillies are dangerous with their plethora of big-hitting left-handers. The Dodgers do not have a deep pool of lefty arms and this could be the turning point of the NLCS. But the Dodgers are playing a lineup that's NEVER played together in the regular season, and the Cubs couldn't figure it out.

I say Dodgers in six; Sawks in six.

First Friday 10-Spot -- October 08

Let's have some fun...

1) The hockey mom held her own last night. When she was first announced by McCain as his veep choice, the teeth were gnashing and all just couldn't wait for this match-up, anticipating a Biden romp. Well, it didn't happen. I'm not saying Joe didn't carry the debate in terms of points, but it wasn't the bloodbath that most were predicting. I did have a problem with Palin blaming predatory lenders for the current mortgage mess -- uh, just a dog-gone minute there, sugar britches, it was lack of regulation and ease of guidelines that led to this demise. Get your facts straight -- oh, that's right, she had her own agenda on talking points, whether they pertained to the question directly or not. Palin is starting to lose momentum because her interviews with Couric were not strong, but the novelty still remains. Whether it can be cashed in for legit votes remains to be seen, but I'm beginning to sense a crack in the credibility ice. My favorite line is: "she showed herself to be a tough, down-home governor from an oil-rich state -- and we did so well with the last person who was like that"...DOH!

2) Well, well, Wells -- The Stagecoach is coming to town! Wells Fargo is buying the-former-employer-that-must-not-be-named, lock stock and barrel, for $7/share, all on its own. Not to be confused with the previously announced deal with Citi that was going to split up the bank AND only pay $1/share AND require FDIC assistance. Should be a fun proxy fight. And personally speaking, it's further proof that somebody up there is looking out for me; I'm so glad I'm not going to be a part of any of this, but I will enjoy competing against them. Mark it down as another bullet dodged...

3) My DODGERS are up 2 games to NONE in the best-of-5 against the little bears, winning the first two games in Chicago, and the next two (if necessary) are in L.A. I wonder how my old friend Mark Gordon is doing right now...sorry, buddy, but it's payback for when your Bulls tromped on my Lakers -- I told you we'll get you back for that...

4) I'm shocked...SHOCKED to hear that, per the Fed jobs report this morning, unemployment is up again, for the 6th straight month. And the pundits say it's only gonna get worse. There's lots of talk about a gloomy holiday season: if small business cannot get their credit lines extended or renewed, they have no way to capitalize themselves so that they can hire seasonal workers plus carry their inventory plus cover benefits expenses. Another reason why the bailout plan is sorely needed, but the silver lining to this dark cloud is that we should see more serious fiscal responsibility on all levels, and that's not a bad thing...

5) National Stay at Home Week: what is that?? You gotta be kidding me. I don't know about you, but it's more like Prep The House for the Holidays Week around here. I'm up to my elbows in carpet cleaners, dust rags and lawn equipment, not to mention Girl Scouts, PTO meetings and HOA issues or taxiing the kids to and from the mall or movies. And the only TV I'm watching is either politics or baseball playoffs or football. I'll get caught up tonight (like I do almost every Friday night) when I catch The Soup on E! and The Greatest Week Ever! on VH1, with a big glass of vino and a relaxing heater. Speaking of which:

6) Cigar of the Year: Punch Rare Corojo. Great, smooth smoke with a mellow taste, and burns evenly. Women love to share it, which is never a bad thing. One of the best cigars for its price range.

7) Wine of the Month: Alice White Red Lexia. It's not too sweet like a white zinfandel, but it's also not too dry like a merlot -- works great for all tastes, especially in social gatherings. It's not the best choice for your moment of solitude, but it works well for your special "one-on-ones" with the fair sex. They also make a white version, just called Lexia, which I prefer over the over-rated chardonnay.

8) Best non-mainstream TV show: Rescue Me. Great writing, great interaction, and the action scenes are tense yet realistically candid in conveying human humor during a crisis. Catch it if you can find it. Usually on F/X, but the writer's strike last year really f'ed up its schedule.

9) Previously-read book that I'm re-reading: Dune. I've forgotten how deep it was. Fear is the mind-killer. It can be dry and long in spots, but it projects an interesting concept in human evolution beyond the 25th century...

10) Guilty Pleasure Website of the Month: www.chickipedia.com. It had to be done.

HAPPY HALLOWEEN!

How did we get here?

There's an interesting article from the 1999 New York Times, that tells us alot about the possible cause of the current housing crisis:

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/p-j-gladnick/2008/09/25/1999-ny-times-article-revealed-true-cause-current-fannie-mae-crises

Let me preface this by saying that, as a long-time licensed mortgage professional, I remember this moment in time because it opened up more sales opportunities for us -- but we (the good guys, anyway) remained diligent in our efforts to help qualified borrowers obtain housing. We still had to run the applications thru several underwriting levels before obtaining final approval.

More importantly, this still did not guarantee that new homeowners were going to be budget conscious and not live beyond their means. Alas, this last comment, in my professional opinion (gathered by years of analyzing consumer credit profiles) contributed greatly to the sudden increase in mortgage defaults. All the more reason why it's so important to teach our children at a young age about budgeting concepts and how to balance a checkbook.

I'm curious to hear your side: when did you learn how to balance a checkbook, and who did you learn it from? And have you ever been in credit difficulty? Was there a particular reason why you got there, and what have you learned from it? Thanks for your serious contributions!