Six People That Need to Stop Aging:
1) Bonnie Raitt. She'll always be the Angel from Montgomery. And I can listen to that voice all night long. Please don't stop singing for us...
2) Anyone from The Brat Pack. Their aging in front of my eyes makes me long for the good ol' days...and further reminds me that Time Waits for No One.
3) Chris Matthews of MSNBC. You may not agree with his politics, but especially after we lost Tim Russert, we need guys like Chris to hang around and give us more human-esque versions of political point-counterpoint.
4) David Letterman. Dave, I remember when you used to come out in dress slacks, blazer, shirt, tie, and...wrestling shoes. Stay gold, Pony Boy.
5) Dennis Erickson. I'll admit, this is a selfish pick. DE is the head football coach of my beloved Arizona State University Sun Devils. I would love to see him have more time and energy to get our program back on national prominence. If only...
6. My Wife. I don't know of anyone over 30 that likes to get old. Jo is still gettin' it done, but she's not one for having patience and dealing with gravity and physical wear-and-tear, and every year takes that glimmer in her eye down just a notch. Hang in there, lady!
Six People for Who It's Already Too Late:
1) Robert Redford. Wow, what happened? The world needs more people like you to raise the level of awareness about injustice and affairs of the heart.
2) Dyan Cannon. I can't believe that she recently turned 71. Wow. I loved her enthusiasm, especially seeing her courtside at Lakers games.
3) Madonna. Sometimes it's better to just let go and accept the aging process. I admire that you got yourself in GREAT shape, but you're still a 50-yr old lady playing in a 20 yr old world -- is that really working for you?
4) Joe Elliot / Simon LeBon. Boys, I admire that you still want to Rock On. God knows that if anyone wants to trade places with you, it's me. But have you looked at yourselves on camera? Either see Madonna's training regimen or step aside -- we want to remember you for who you were, not what you are now.
5) Mohammad Ali. Life can be a cruel thing. You represented a generation, and you will always be The Greatest. May the rest of your years be easy on you.
6. Me. What the hell happened? Who is that guy in the mirror?
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Sunday, January 04, 2009
The Bush Legacy
One of the more amusing quotes I've read this weekend was on the topic of how Bush 43 will be remembered by historians. When it was mentioned that critics see the POTUS as clueless and stubborn, former Bush speechwriter Kasey Pipes says Not So Fast, My Friends: (anti-Bush supporters) "suffer from the same flaws the critics say they see in the President: They're too lazy, they're too simple and they're too lacking in nuance."
As most well-studied historians know (and as Obama and his team are quickly learning), the job of POTUS leaves no room for error, and every move is scrutinized and questioned, if not from the opposite party, then certainly by the partisans. No POTUS in recent memory has escaped brutal second-guessing and constructive criticism. Obama will be no exception. Bush 43 left much to be desired, and there were many times that many Republicans felt abandoned and perplexed by the administration's perspective, but it's no different than any other POTUS we've seen in our lifetime. JFK had youthful exuberance and the New Frontier -- he also gave the green light to the Bay of Pigs fiasco soon after taking office. Johnson was instrumental in pushing forward the Civil Rights movements, but he couldn't control the massive anti-war movement at home, resting so heavy on his conscious that he refused to run for re-election. Nixon was a giant in shuttle diplomacy but succumbed to the psychotic strains of paranoia to the point of making a major lapse in judgement, which ultimately forced him to resign. Ford was the right man at the right time to guide America's healing process, but could not overcome the economic recession and double-digit inflation strangling the country. Carter brought hope of being an outsider that was needed to break up the malaise, but only made it worse. Reagan was the pillar of strength our foreign policy needed, and he brought down Communism, but he, too, made a lapse in judgement with Iran-Contra that some say was attributable to his age. Bush 41 rode in on incumbent coattails and the jury was out until he was unable to win re-election. Clinton was an engaging populist and took full advantage of the prior administration's diligence in revamping the economy, but his reckless and callous libido overshadowed any positive influence he may have gained and remains forever tainted. Bush 43 came in as an independent thinker, a governor of a large US state, fully capable on paper, but quickly lost steam with his questionable cabinet appointments to key positions, not to mention his devil-may-care attitude about massive increases in federal spending and imperialistic policies, but on that last note, I will argue that history will show him to be more correct than most give him credit for. Unfortunately for Bush 43, his communication skills and ineffective talent for spin-doctoring has left us yearning for more, and time will be the only solution. But shame on any amateur or myopic critics who are only too quick to mouth off against the man for what they see as a weak leader. As I always say, There's Two Sides To Every Story, and history will soon tell us all of it. I only hope I'm around to see it...and the subsequent washing of egg off many faces.
As most well-studied historians know (and as Obama and his team are quickly learning), the job of POTUS leaves no room for error, and every move is scrutinized and questioned, if not from the opposite party, then certainly by the partisans. No POTUS in recent memory has escaped brutal second-guessing and constructive criticism. Obama will be no exception. Bush 43 left much to be desired, and there were many times that many Republicans felt abandoned and perplexed by the administration's perspective, but it's no different than any other POTUS we've seen in our lifetime. JFK had youthful exuberance and the New Frontier -- he also gave the green light to the Bay of Pigs fiasco soon after taking office. Johnson was instrumental in pushing forward the Civil Rights movements, but he couldn't control the massive anti-war movement at home, resting so heavy on his conscious that he refused to run for re-election. Nixon was a giant in shuttle diplomacy but succumbed to the psychotic strains of paranoia to the point of making a major lapse in judgement, which ultimately forced him to resign. Ford was the right man at the right time to guide America's healing process, but could not overcome the economic recession and double-digit inflation strangling the country. Carter brought hope of being an outsider that was needed to break up the malaise, but only made it worse. Reagan was the pillar of strength our foreign policy needed, and he brought down Communism, but he, too, made a lapse in judgement with Iran-Contra that some say was attributable to his age. Bush 41 rode in on incumbent coattails and the jury was out until he was unable to win re-election. Clinton was an engaging populist and took full advantage of the prior administration's diligence in revamping the economy, but his reckless and callous libido overshadowed any positive influence he may have gained and remains forever tainted. Bush 43 came in as an independent thinker, a governor of a large US state, fully capable on paper, but quickly lost steam with his questionable cabinet appointments to key positions, not to mention his devil-may-care attitude about massive increases in federal spending and imperialistic policies, but on that last note, I will argue that history will show him to be more correct than most give him credit for. Unfortunately for Bush 43, his communication skills and ineffective talent for spin-doctoring has left us yearning for more, and time will be the only solution. But shame on any amateur or myopic critics who are only too quick to mouth off against the man for what they see as a weak leader. As I always say, There's Two Sides To Every Story, and history will soon tell us all of it. I only hope I'm around to see it...and the subsequent washing of egg off many faces.
Saturday, January 03, 2009
Already struggling
First off: a belated Happy New Year to all. As we reach the mid-point of the 3rd day of the year, I am already behind on my New Year's resolutions. One of my resolutions was to blog every day for at least a month -- a couple of months ago, I joined this "club" that gives your blog web-wide recognition but the only requirement is that you blog every day for a month. Well, so much for that one. There's always next month, and hey, isn't February a short month? Next on the list is a regular regimen of diet and exercise. So far, no good. Can I use this weekend as my "transition stage" and go legit on Monday? That works for me. But I still have to "transition". OK, haven't had breakfast yet today, so doesn't that count? Playing cards tonight with the boys, so I'll be indulging in cocktails, but I could help myself by not eating or snacking during or after the drinking hours. A couple of years ago, I was on a strict daily run/walk/weightlifting routine and it worked very well. I'd like to restart that program, but it's been difficult for me to get motivated enough to get up early for the walk/run. Doesn't work after work or after the kids go to sleep -- my work hours are too uneven to rely on for a steady program, and by the time the kids go to sleep, I'm exhausted, too. The "crack of Dawn" routine is the only one that works for my schedule, but it's so difficult to implement because of the cold and dark of the pre-dawn hours -- who wants to get out of a warm bed for that? Sounds like the first thing I need to do is to overcome the objections instead of the weather or hours.
Yes, it's a psychological battle that I fight every day. I just have to suck it up and deal with it. My goal is to lose 30 pounds by Easter, then keep it off to at least July 4th. If I can stay with it, it will stay with me. Anything you do on a daily basis over a 30-day period is more likely to be incorporated into your daily routine for the rest of your life, all things being equal, so I'd like to see if I can push myself enough to make it happen.
What's on your resolution list? Feel welcome to share your thoughts and ideas. I need all the motivation and help I can get!
Yes, it's a psychological battle that I fight every day. I just have to suck it up and deal with it. My goal is to lose 30 pounds by Easter, then keep it off to at least July 4th. If I can stay with it, it will stay with me. Anything you do on a daily basis over a 30-day period is more likely to be incorporated into your daily routine for the rest of your life, all things being equal, so I'd like to see if I can push myself enough to make it happen.
What's on your resolution list? Feel welcome to share your thoughts and ideas. I need all the motivation and help I can get!
Monday, December 22, 2008
"close" only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades
It was so close. It was right in front of us -- and by "us", I mean all die-hard AND bandwagon Carolina Panther fans. We were 15 minutes away from home field advantage throughout the NFL playoffs. The spotlight would be on the Queen City. The announcers of the game had suddenly changed their pro-Giant bias to the other team, and even waxed eloquently on the current owner of the team (a former NFL star who is currently awaiting a heart donor for transplant). Charlotte was feeling special -- imagine the spotlight! the glamour! the stars that would be coming to us! Sure, in terms of the game, the formerly no-name cast of players and coaches would receive more national exposure. Even better is that the networks would have had to acknowledge us and pile on heaps of praise for all the world to see. The latter is what I was focusing in on as the clock wound down. Players can play anywhere -- unlike baseball or hockey, the playing fields in the NFL, like the NBA, are absolute and never change due to venue or arena, so there's no excuse other than fan support for home field advantage. What really matters is the map of where the road travels. And we were almost in complete control of it. I don't blame the loss too much on the miss from the usually reliable kicker -- the distance on the kick was good, but the wind pushed it out at the last 10 yards. Should the kicker has adjusted the angle for better percentage? Perhaps -- after all, he is a highly paid professional, and this is his only job requirement, so I'm sure he's being skewered right now on various sports talk shows, especially in Panther Nation. Then again, the coaches knew what elements they were fighting against, so they could have played it better in moving the ball closer to the goal line instead of taking the safe way out. But that is so typical of this coaching staff: they live (and die) on erring on the side of caution. In the end, the defense did not hold and the game was lost in overtime. Even worse than the loss was the fact that the Giants covered the betting line, so all the Vinnies in Brooklyn and Mad Dogs and Czabans in sports media could remove their thumb from their mouth and loudly proclaim (in their best Dice Clay voice): "fuggetaboutit -- I knew it all along -- right here! Oh!"...and the beat goes on.
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Where you goin' with that UB-40 in your hand?
Something is not quite right here. I constantly hear that's there's a LOT of people out of work these days. More than usual. Much more than expected. And worse yet, there's more to follow in the coming months. Most companies that are planning massive layoffs are only waiting until after the holidays so as to not appear like Scrooge, but you know they would prefer to do it now and close their books on this year asap. Tonight on CNBC they were talking about a guy in California that is at the point of losing his house to foreclosure, and it's mostly due to him losing his job earlier this year. He also owns three rentals, and all three tenants have lost their jobs, too, so he's getting no relief. He's appealed to his state and local government for assistance, and what do they do? They establish a public hearing to listen to his story and the plight of other similar Sad Sacks. Needless to say, the poor guy is not expecting much to come out of it for another 8-10 months, and he's at a loss as to what's he's supposed to do while they talk amongst themselves.
You may be aware that California is not exactly raking in the revenues right now; the Governator is appealing to anyone that will listen that the state is in need of some type of bailout funds. Of course, this went over well with other states in similar straits, so they quickly chimed in with their hat in hand, too.
What concerns me is that we seem to be heading into the Perfect Storm: A very high debt service, thanks to allocated bailout funds, but less-than average revenue sources due to unexpected high unemployment. And the POTUS-e is concerned that the Fed has played all remaining trump cards prior to his coming into office, which doesn't help him with his plans to resurrect the economy, thus firmly establishing his legacy as the Savior of the Country. Are you saying that the 'publicans are purposely not going out of their way to help Obama get a running start to cure the nation's ills? What a surprise. But hey, that's the way the game is played. The Clintonites did the same if not worse to the incoming Bush administration, and so on down the line. I'd suggest to Obama that he not get so hot under the collar about the current administration's agenda for the next 30 days, and instead focus on how to fix or mend it all on January 21st.
I predict that this holiday season will see a surprise surge in spending, but it could be due to people thinking they need to go out with a bang. Then again, I see many people every day in my job that have great credit, great equity established in their homes, and great income, so I'd say that most Americans are getting it right. The challenge will be to not allow the tail to wag the dog, i.e. not let the 4% or 5% "less-than" perfect Americans sway the rest of the nation into a deeper recession. There are many ways to reduce the unemployment numbers, but it takes courage to implement them. Who's going to blink first?
You may be aware that California is not exactly raking in the revenues right now; the Governator is appealing to anyone that will listen that the state is in need of some type of bailout funds. Of course, this went over well with other states in similar straits, so they quickly chimed in with their hat in hand, too.
What concerns me is that we seem to be heading into the Perfect Storm: A very high debt service, thanks to allocated bailout funds, but less-than average revenue sources due to unexpected high unemployment. And the POTUS-e is concerned that the Fed has played all remaining trump cards prior to his coming into office, which doesn't help him with his plans to resurrect the economy, thus firmly establishing his legacy as the Savior of the Country. Are you saying that the 'publicans are purposely not going out of their way to help Obama get a running start to cure the nation's ills? What a surprise. But hey, that's the way the game is played. The Clintonites did the same if not worse to the incoming Bush administration, and so on down the line. I'd suggest to Obama that he not get so hot under the collar about the current administration's agenda for the next 30 days, and instead focus on how to fix or mend it all on January 21st.
I predict that this holiday season will see a surprise surge in spending, but it could be due to people thinking they need to go out with a bang. Then again, I see many people every day in my job that have great credit, great equity established in their homes, and great income, so I'd say that most Americans are getting it right. The challenge will be to not allow the tail to wag the dog, i.e. not let the 4% or 5% "less-than" perfect Americans sway the rest of the nation into a deeper recession. There are many ways to reduce the unemployment numbers, but it takes courage to implement them. Who's going to blink first?
Wednesday, December 10, 2008
What comes around, goes around
By now, most of you have heard of the scandal in Illinois regarding the arrest of the Governor on graft charges. This is the type of story that reaffirms my belief in karma (or a facsimile thereof), in that the party of the recent national elections is now the recipient of the taint that they were so quick to throw to the losing party just two months earlier. The President-Elect (should he be referred to as POTUS-e? TPE? That last one sounds too much like a popular reference to bathroom tissue, we can't have that. But I digress...) is involved because this is his home state, and the scandal involves the Governor's legislative responsibility to designate a successor to the POTUS-e's Senate seat. Governor Blagojevich ("Blago") has been caught on voice recordings with many direct statements about how he (was) planning to sell the seat to the highest bidder, which is clearly against the law. The fact that he comes off as arrogant and aloof doesn't help. But equal to all of this is that Blago is a Democrat that is tied to the POTUS-e, and suddenly the POTUS-e's image is not so golden. Immediate reaction from the media is shock and awe -- Blago wasted no opportunity to voice his opinions, and most of them were caustic -- and it's been interesting to watch the Matthews and Olbermanns and Maddows of the world bob and weave while trying to get a grip on it all. "Surely this cannot be happening to our guy? He's not like one of them! This is so...so...(gasp) Republican!" Ah, that's the beauty of it. You see, kids, there's scum on both sides of the aisle. And yes, there's good people on both sides, too, but let this be a lesson to those who were so myopic that they failed to acknowledge this until now. Nobody's perfect -- we learned that long ago, first during the Kennedy election, and soon after with Watergate. Hey, it goes farther than that: Lincoln appointed his campaign manager to the Supreme Court (so there was a Harriet Myers before Harriet Myers). American politics in general, and POTUS history in particular, is littered with this type of thing. What makes it all worthwhile is to see the squirming of the mainstream media and devoted followers who never saw this coming and never expected their guys/gals to fall prey to this corruption. It just shows to go ya: it can happen to anyone.
Monday, December 01, 2008
First
Welcome to the First Day of the Last Month of the Year. There's plenty to reflect on -- and regret about -- as the month moves forward. There will be plenty of "Best of" lists, plenty of "the year in pictures/video/audio/Hollywood/politics/TV/etc.", and plenty of good tidings and cheer (a/k/a work parties). There will be moments of rememberance, and enthusiasm for resolutions. There will be opportunities to Pay It Forward, and there will be calls for charitable giving. There will be happy family gatherings, and a chance to make amends. There will be shameless self-promotion, and (seemingly) endless ad pitches for diamonds, toys, last-minute ideas, and must-see holiday programs. It's as if the whole nation is ready to take a slow break from reality and recharge for the New Year. Just remember: Actions speak louder than Words. Are you ready?
Tuesday, November 25, 2008
Office of the President-Elect?
Doesn't even exist. There's no mention of it in the Constitution. One thing's for sure about the new guy: he likes his spotlight time. He got a lot of flak early in the campaign for making speeches in front of a podium with the now-famous "O" seal -- in fact, McCain make a joke about it in one of the debates. You didn't see that seal much after that, until the night of the election. Now his podium is ordained by the sign proclaiming "Office of the President-Elect". OK, whatever. If that's the worst thing to complain about, then I'm good with it. Just one thing, Mr. President-Elect: I hope your arrogance and pomposity is strong enough to protect you during those long lonely days and nights of struggling to keep things together....
Thursday, November 20, 2008
An Open Memo
To: Stock Market
From: Johnny Lunchpail
Re: Bear market
OK. You made your point. We took you for granted and you got us back in spades. No one is laughing anymore. Even the talking heads on CNBC are looking dazed. How many times do I need to see Cramer throw up his hands? No one can explain it now, other than it's just pure correction against pure greed. Lots of folks are seeing their savings wiped out, and every time they try to double down via dollar cost averaging, they get wiped out even worse. Citi is under $5/share -- what is UP with that? They're yelling at each other on Fast Money and on Hardball. It's like there's nowhere to turn. Everyone is looking for the magic door out of this hell hole. Buy bonds? Can't afford to live off of that ROI. Buy more stocks? There's no value there anymore, cuz there's no bottom. Christmas is coming and everyone's freaking out because they no longer have any money to buy their honey expensive jewelry or Junior the GI Joe with the Kung Fu Grip. As Scotty would say, "we're losing power in the engines and I don't know why".
In a strange way, this is creating an artificial cleansing, like we need to be shaken so hard to get us back to reality of what's really important.
From: Johnny Lunchpail
Re: Bear market
OK. You made your point. We took you for granted and you got us back in spades. No one is laughing anymore. Even the talking heads on CNBC are looking dazed. How many times do I need to see Cramer throw up his hands? No one can explain it now, other than it's just pure correction against pure greed. Lots of folks are seeing their savings wiped out, and every time they try to double down via dollar cost averaging, they get wiped out even worse. Citi is under $5/share -- what is UP with that? They're yelling at each other on Fast Money and on Hardball. It's like there's nowhere to turn. Everyone is looking for the magic door out of this hell hole. Buy bonds? Can't afford to live off of that ROI. Buy more stocks? There's no value there anymore, cuz there's no bottom. Christmas is coming and everyone's freaking out because they no longer have any money to buy their honey expensive jewelry or Junior the GI Joe with the Kung Fu Grip. As Scotty would say, "we're losing power in the engines and I don't know why".
In a strange way, this is creating an artificial cleansing, like we need to be shaken so hard to get us back to reality of what's really important.
Sunday, November 16, 2008
Irrational Exuberance, The Next Generation
As I awaken from my unexpected writing slumber...
The election is over, and we have a new President-Elect in the midst of transition. There seems to be a plethora of writings out there waxing poetic about what the future holds with this breath of fresh air. It was wise to hold emotions in check so as to take it all in without being jaded from the rose-colored glasses being freely handed out. Let's start by saying that the country is well-served by this change in administration -- the past 6 years in particular have weighed very heavy on the conscious of America. There is no argument that change is needed; both sides were very aggressive in their message, and it's safe to say that either would have been more aggressive in their approach to solving problems than what we've seen to date.
What needs to be understood is the incredible complexities of every major issue -- these problems will not be going away any time soon, no matter who is in charge. The POTUS-elect is starting to see just how big these issues are, so don't be surprised if it takes time to unwind the problems that were so easy to target and ridicule just two weeks ago. It was good to see Obama make his make his election night speech in somber overtones, as if he was suddenly saddled with the weight of world (and he is, and will be for at least four more years, starting now). There are many pundits out there that should take this "hint" equally as serious. The last thing this nation needs is to be overwrought by a new stream of irrational exuberance over the change in political direction without fully comprehending the ramifications and scope of the problems at hand. Deeds, not words, are what is needed today. The question remains as to whether both sides will put aside their differences long enough to solve the problems instead of engaging in more partisan bickering. Your move.
The election is over, and we have a new President-Elect in the midst of transition. There seems to be a plethora of writings out there waxing poetic about what the future holds with this breath of fresh air. It was wise to hold emotions in check so as to take it all in without being jaded from the rose-colored glasses being freely handed out. Let's start by saying that the country is well-served by this change in administration -- the past 6 years in particular have weighed very heavy on the conscious of America. There is no argument that change is needed; both sides were very aggressive in their message, and it's safe to say that either would have been more aggressive in their approach to solving problems than what we've seen to date.
What needs to be understood is the incredible complexities of every major issue -- these problems will not be going away any time soon, no matter who is in charge. The POTUS-elect is starting to see just how big these issues are, so don't be surprised if it takes time to unwind the problems that were so easy to target and ridicule just two weeks ago. It was good to see Obama make his make his election night speech in somber overtones, as if he was suddenly saddled with the weight of world (and he is, and will be for at least four more years, starting now). There are many pundits out there that should take this "hint" equally as serious. The last thing this nation needs is to be overwrought by a new stream of irrational exuberance over the change in political direction without fully comprehending the ramifications and scope of the problems at hand. Deeds, not words, are what is needed today. The question remains as to whether both sides will put aside their differences long enough to solve the problems instead of engaging in more partisan bickering. Your move.
Friday, October 10, 2008
Smoke 'em if you got 'em
Dow just opened 5 minutes ago and is already down over 600 points. We are now below 8000. This is looking more and more like a crash instead of a major correction. Panic is starting to overtake fear. It's like we're swimming in a pool of black water and we know there's a bottom to it, we just can't see it and therefore we don't know if we're in the shallow end or the deep end. The talking heads on CNBC are dazed. Business professionals know that the first rule of the markets is to keep your emotions in check and never let them see you sweat, but there's lots of people on the floor that are very testy today. Seven negative days in a row, working on number Eight! In one way, it's a good thing that it's Friday because there's no open market tomorrow. On the other hand, Friday is always used as the day to break bad news and let emotions cool a few days before starting up again on Monday. Speaking of Monday, it's a holiday, so we could see major settlements by the end of the day. Keep an eye on the markets around 3pm -- that's the magic hour lately when the markets turn south. Will GM survive today?
Tuesday, October 07, 2008
And then there were four...
Congrats to the Sawks for taking out the Halos last night. By the way the Angels' players are reacting, you would think there's a bunch of sour grapes being served in their clubhouse: "We lost to a team that's not better than us," growled pitcher John Lackey, who gave up two runs and seven hits in seven innings. "We are a better team than they are. The last two days, we shouldn't have given up anything." "I'm [ticked], I'm upset, this one's going to be with me for a while," Torii Hunter said. "It doesn't feel good, because we're a better team than they are. But they're moving on." I agree that the Angels underachieved. As for the Cubs, well, they just choked in the limelight. Usually the Dodgers are the chokers, but I think that they've been so far removed from the playoffs that they didn't feel the pressure of high expectations that the Cubs felt. Funny how the two teams with the best regular-season records are bounced out of the playoffs, 6 games to 1, and 4 of those 6 were on their home fields.
The Rays are a breath of fresh air, but sometimes that air is filled with pollen that we central air breathers are not used to and it makes us sick. I would not be surprised to see them crumble under the weight, but then again, they could be this year's Florida Marlins and steamroll thru the playoffs before they wake up and realize where they are. Given that they're playing the hard-charging in-your-face Sawks, I foresee a few smackdowns in thie ALCS, so grab your popcorn....The Phillies are dangerous with their plethora of big-hitting left-handers. The Dodgers do not have a deep pool of lefty arms and this could be the turning point of the NLCS. But the Dodgers are playing a lineup that's NEVER played together in the regular season, and the Cubs couldn't figure it out.
I say Dodgers in six; Sawks in six.
The Rays are a breath of fresh air, but sometimes that air is filled with pollen that we central air breathers are not used to and it makes us sick. I would not be surprised to see them crumble under the weight, but then again, they could be this year's Florida Marlins and steamroll thru the playoffs before they wake up and realize where they are. Given that they're playing the hard-charging in-your-face Sawks, I foresee a few smackdowns in thie ALCS, so grab your popcorn....The Phillies are dangerous with their plethora of big-hitting left-handers. The Dodgers do not have a deep pool of lefty arms and this could be the turning point of the NLCS. But the Dodgers are playing a lineup that's NEVER played together in the regular season, and the Cubs couldn't figure it out.
I say Dodgers in six; Sawks in six.
Friday, October 03, 2008
First Friday 10-Spot -- October 08
Let's have some fun...
1) The hockey mom held her own last night. When she was first announced by McCain as his veep choice, the teeth were gnashing and all just couldn't wait for this match-up, anticipating a Biden romp. Well, it didn't happen. I'm not saying Joe didn't carry the debate in terms of points, but it wasn't the bloodbath that most were predicting. I did have a problem with Palin blaming predatory lenders for the current mortgage mess -- uh, just a dog-gone minute there, sugar britches, it was lack of regulation and ease of guidelines that led to this demise. Get your facts straight -- oh, that's right, she had her own agenda on talking points, whether they pertained to the question directly or not. Palin is starting to lose momentum because her interviews with Couric were not strong, but the novelty still remains. Whether it can be cashed in for legit votes remains to be seen, but I'm beginning to sense a crack in the credibility ice. My favorite line is: "she showed herself to be a tough, down-home governor from an oil-rich state -- and we did so well with the last person who was like that"...DOH!
2) Well, well, Wells -- The Stagecoach is coming to town! Wells Fargo is buying the-former-employer-that-must-not-be-named, lock stock and barrel, for $7/share, all on its own. Not to be confused with the previously announced deal with Citi that was going to split up the bank AND only pay $1/share AND require FDIC assistance. Should be a fun proxy fight. And personally speaking, it's further proof that somebody up there is looking out for me; I'm so glad I'm not going to be a part of any of this, but I will enjoy competing against them. Mark it down as another bullet dodged...
3) My DODGERS are up 2 games to NONE in the best-of-5 against the little bears, winning the first two games in Chicago, and the next two (if necessary) are in L.A. I wonder how my old friend Mark Gordon is doing right now...sorry, buddy, but it's payback for when your Bulls tromped on my Lakers -- I told you we'll get you back for that...
4) I'm shocked...SHOCKED to hear that, per the Fed jobs report this morning, unemployment is up again, for the 6th straight month. And the pundits say it's only gonna get worse. There's lots of talk about a gloomy holiday season: if small business cannot get their credit lines extended or renewed, they have no way to capitalize themselves so that they can hire seasonal workers plus carry their inventory plus cover benefits expenses. Another reason why the bailout plan is sorely needed, but the silver lining to this dark cloud is that we should see more serious fiscal responsibility on all levels, and that's not a bad thing...
5) National Stay at Home Week: what is that?? You gotta be kidding me. I don't know about you, but it's more like Prep The House for the Holidays Week around here. I'm up to my elbows in carpet cleaners, dust rags and lawn equipment, not to mention Girl Scouts, PTO meetings and HOA issues or taxiing the kids to and from the mall or movies. And the only TV I'm watching is either politics or baseball playoffs or football. I'll get caught up tonight (like I do almost every Friday night) when I catch The Soup on E! and The Greatest Week Ever! on VH1, with a big glass of vino and a relaxing heater. Speaking of which:
6) Cigar of the Year: Punch Rare Corojo. Great, smooth smoke with a mellow taste, and burns evenly. Women love to share it, which is never a bad thing. One of the best cigars for its price range.
7) Wine of the Month: Alice White Red Lexia. It's not too sweet like a white zinfandel, but it's also not too dry like a merlot -- works great for all tastes, especially in social gatherings. It's not the best choice for your moment of solitude, but it works well for your special "one-on-ones" with the fair sex. They also make a white version, just called Lexia, which I prefer over the over-rated chardonnay.
8) Best non-mainstream TV show: Rescue Me. Great writing, great interaction, and the action scenes are tense yet realistically candid in conveying human humor during a crisis. Catch it if you can find it. Usually on F/X, but the writer's strike last year really f'ed up its schedule.
9) Previously-read book that I'm re-reading: Dune. I've forgotten how deep it was. Fear is the mind-killer. It can be dry and long in spots, but it projects an interesting concept in human evolution beyond the 25th century...
10) Guilty Pleasure Website of the Month: www.chickipedia.com. It had to be done.
HAPPY HALLOWEEN!
1) The hockey mom held her own last night. When she was first announced by McCain as his veep choice, the teeth were gnashing and all just couldn't wait for this match-up, anticipating a Biden romp. Well, it didn't happen. I'm not saying Joe didn't carry the debate in terms of points, but it wasn't the bloodbath that most were predicting. I did have a problem with Palin blaming predatory lenders for the current mortgage mess -- uh, just a dog-gone minute there, sugar britches, it was lack of regulation and ease of guidelines that led to this demise. Get your facts straight -- oh, that's right, she had her own agenda on talking points, whether they pertained to the question directly or not. Palin is starting to lose momentum because her interviews with Couric were not strong, but the novelty still remains. Whether it can be cashed in for legit votes remains to be seen, but I'm beginning to sense a crack in the credibility ice. My favorite line is: "she showed herself to be a tough, down-home governor from an oil-rich state -- and we did so well with the last person who was like that"...DOH!
2) Well, well, Wells -- The Stagecoach is coming to town! Wells Fargo is buying the-former-employer-that-must-not-be-named, lock stock and barrel, for $7/share, all on its own. Not to be confused with the previously announced deal with Citi that was going to split up the bank AND only pay $1/share AND require FDIC assistance. Should be a fun proxy fight. And personally speaking, it's further proof that somebody up there is looking out for me; I'm so glad I'm not going to be a part of any of this, but I will enjoy competing against them. Mark it down as another bullet dodged...
3) My DODGERS are up 2 games to NONE in the best-of-5 against the little bears, winning the first two games in Chicago, and the next two (if necessary) are in L.A. I wonder how my old friend Mark Gordon is doing right now...sorry, buddy, but it's payback for when your Bulls tromped on my Lakers -- I told you we'll get you back for that...
4) I'm shocked...SHOCKED to hear that, per the Fed jobs report this morning, unemployment is up again, for the 6th straight month. And the pundits say it's only gonna get worse. There's lots of talk about a gloomy holiday season: if small business cannot get their credit lines extended or renewed, they have no way to capitalize themselves so that they can hire seasonal workers plus carry their inventory plus cover benefits expenses. Another reason why the bailout plan is sorely needed, but the silver lining to this dark cloud is that we should see more serious fiscal responsibility on all levels, and that's not a bad thing...
5) National Stay at Home Week: what is that?? You gotta be kidding me. I don't know about you, but it's more like Prep The House for the Holidays Week around here. I'm up to my elbows in carpet cleaners, dust rags and lawn equipment, not to mention Girl Scouts, PTO meetings and HOA issues or taxiing the kids to and from the mall or movies. And the only TV I'm watching is either politics or baseball playoffs or football. I'll get caught up tonight (like I do almost every Friday night) when I catch The Soup on E! and The Greatest Week Ever! on VH1, with a big glass of vino and a relaxing heater. Speaking of which:
6) Cigar of the Year: Punch Rare Corojo. Great, smooth smoke with a mellow taste, and burns evenly. Women love to share it, which is never a bad thing. One of the best cigars for its price range.
7) Wine of the Month: Alice White Red Lexia. It's not too sweet like a white zinfandel, but it's also not too dry like a merlot -- works great for all tastes, especially in social gatherings. It's not the best choice for your moment of solitude, but it works well for your special "one-on-ones" with the fair sex. They also make a white version, just called Lexia, which I prefer over the over-rated chardonnay.
8) Best non-mainstream TV show: Rescue Me. Great writing, great interaction, and the action scenes are tense yet realistically candid in conveying human humor during a crisis. Catch it if you can find it. Usually on F/X, but the writer's strike last year really f'ed up its schedule.
9) Previously-read book that I'm re-reading: Dune. I've forgotten how deep it was. Fear is the mind-killer. It can be dry and long in spots, but it projects an interesting concept in human evolution beyond the 25th century...
10) Guilty Pleasure Website of the Month: www.chickipedia.com. It had to be done.
HAPPY HALLOWEEN!
Thursday, October 02, 2008
How did we get here?
There's an interesting article from the 1999 New York Times, that tells us alot about the possible cause of the current housing crisis:
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/p-j-gladnick/2008/09/25/1999-ny-times-article-revealed-true-cause-current-fannie-mae-crises
Let me preface this by saying that, as a long-time licensed mortgage professional, I remember this moment in time because it opened up more sales opportunities for us -- but we (the good guys, anyway) remained diligent in our efforts to help qualified borrowers obtain housing. We still had to run the applications thru several underwriting levels before obtaining final approval.
More importantly, this still did not guarantee that new homeowners were going to be budget conscious and not live beyond their means. Alas, this last comment, in my professional opinion (gathered by years of analyzing consumer credit profiles) contributed greatly to the sudden increase in mortgage defaults. All the more reason why it's so important to teach our children at a young age about budgeting concepts and how to balance a checkbook.
I'm curious to hear your side: when did you learn how to balance a checkbook, and who did you learn it from? And have you ever been in credit difficulty? Was there a particular reason why you got there, and what have you learned from it? Thanks for your serious contributions!
http://newsbusters.org/blogs/p-j-gladnick/2008/09/25/1999-ny-times-article-revealed-true-cause-current-fannie-mae-crises
Let me preface this by saying that, as a long-time licensed mortgage professional, I remember this moment in time because it opened up more sales opportunities for us -- but we (the good guys, anyway) remained diligent in our efforts to help qualified borrowers obtain housing. We still had to run the applications thru several underwriting levels before obtaining final approval.
More importantly, this still did not guarantee that new homeowners were going to be budget conscious and not live beyond their means. Alas, this last comment, in my professional opinion (gathered by years of analyzing consumer credit profiles) contributed greatly to the sudden increase in mortgage defaults. All the more reason why it's so important to teach our children at a young age about budgeting concepts and how to balance a checkbook.
I'm curious to hear your side: when did you learn how to balance a checkbook, and who did you learn it from? And have you ever been in credit difficulty? Was there a particular reason why you got there, and what have you learned from it? Thanks for your serious contributions!
Tuesday, September 30, 2008
Pelosi can't shut her piehole
News came out this morning that one of the major reasons why the Bailout Bill failed was because House Republicans refused to vote in favor of it due to caustic partisan remarks made by Speaker of the House (and Democrat) Nancy Pelosi, just before the vote. Millions of married men everywhere, when hearing about this, silently laughed and shook their heads -- because we KNOW the feeling: women must always have the last word, good or bad. You picked a helluva time to mouth off, Madame Speaker.
Sure, there's good to come of this -- the bill needs to be given more time for review (after all, it's only 700 BILLION dollars we're talking about here), but it also brings to light several very interesting tidbits:
1) We still don't exactly know what makes up the $700 billion figure. We got this number from a 3-page bill suggestion from the Bush Administration via the Secretary of the Treasury. An administration (and possibly Secretary) that will be out of office in 4 short months, yet the funding is to carry over 8-10 years minimum.
2) This means that all the House members were to vote "yea" on the largest funding package ever, yet have no specific idea how it's to be allocated. It's no wonder that most of the House was skeptical at best, especially only 7 weeks from election day. Many were concerned that a "yea" vote would sink their campaigns, so naturally they took the high road.
3) Neither Obama nor McCain was able to make a difference in the voting. Obama had a meeting with the Black Caucus on Sunday -- the same group that voted "no" on the bill. I guess he didn't have enough time to discuss and persuade the caucus to vote the same "yea" way he would vote, and this certainly can't bode well for him -- one could turn this around and say the same things the Dems are saying about Palin: if Obama can't sell the Black Caucus, how can we expect him to sell Putin? Meanwhile, McCain was unable to convince enough House Republicans to vote the same "yea" way he would vote, either. In fact, most of the House Reps from McCain's home state of Arizona voted "no" on the bill. Again, where is the effective leadership?
4) No help from a weak POTUS and a weaker SotH. Reagan didn't have these issues when he wanted important legislation passed, and do you think Tip O'Neil would have let this happen the way it did? No way. Both Bush and Pelosi suffer from the lowest approval ratings in history, so they have no mandate to help them influence the fence-straddlers.
5) Nancy's piehole. What in the world was she thinking? That didn't help your reputation to the American people, Nance. Ever hear of "discretion is the better part of valor"? Next time, use some decorum and work harder to set the example. We expect better from you.
Finally, I'm still wondering what exactly constitutes $700 Billion and what it specifically relates to in the accounting. Why can we not get more information on this? It is because of all this grey area in the numbers that I'm not concerned about the market suffering yesterday. And further proof can be found in today's market activity: up over 450 points, the very next day, so you know the 777 point drop was artificial -- of course it is! It's all speculation anyway!
Sure, there's good to come of this -- the bill needs to be given more time for review (after all, it's only 700 BILLION dollars we're talking about here), but it also brings to light several very interesting tidbits:
1) We still don't exactly know what makes up the $700 billion figure. We got this number from a 3-page bill suggestion from the Bush Administration via the Secretary of the Treasury. An administration (and possibly Secretary) that will be out of office in 4 short months, yet the funding is to carry over 8-10 years minimum.
2) This means that all the House members were to vote "yea" on the largest funding package ever, yet have no specific idea how it's to be allocated. It's no wonder that most of the House was skeptical at best, especially only 7 weeks from election day. Many were concerned that a "yea" vote would sink their campaigns, so naturally they took the high road.
3) Neither Obama nor McCain was able to make a difference in the voting. Obama had a meeting with the Black Caucus on Sunday -- the same group that voted "no" on the bill. I guess he didn't have enough time to discuss and persuade the caucus to vote the same "yea" way he would vote, and this certainly can't bode well for him -- one could turn this around and say the same things the Dems are saying about Palin: if Obama can't sell the Black Caucus, how can we expect him to sell Putin? Meanwhile, McCain was unable to convince enough House Republicans to vote the same "yea" way he would vote, either. In fact, most of the House Reps from McCain's home state of Arizona voted "no" on the bill. Again, where is the effective leadership?
4) No help from a weak POTUS and a weaker SotH. Reagan didn't have these issues when he wanted important legislation passed, and do you think Tip O'Neil would have let this happen the way it did? No way. Both Bush and Pelosi suffer from the lowest approval ratings in history, so they have no mandate to help them influence the fence-straddlers.
5) Nancy's piehole. What in the world was she thinking? That didn't help your reputation to the American people, Nance. Ever hear of "discretion is the better part of valor"? Next time, use some decorum and work harder to set the example. We expect better from you.
Finally, I'm still wondering what exactly constitutes $700 Billion and what it specifically relates to in the accounting. Why can we not get more information on this? It is because of all this grey area in the numbers that I'm not concerned about the market suffering yesterday. And further proof can be found in today's market activity: up over 450 points, the very next day, so you know the 777 point drop was artificial -- of course it is! It's all speculation anyway!
Saturday, September 27, 2008
First Debate Post-Op
The first POTUS debate was held last night in Oxford, MS, and the theme was foreign policy, yet everyone knew that, in light of recent events involving the financial crisis, the opening remarks were going to be monopolized with the candidates' viewpoints on how to solve this mess. The pre-game consensus was that this worked to Obama's advantage because McCain is seen as light on economic issues, plus he has the weight of the current administration on his back (due to they sharing the same party affiliation). McCain's saving grace was to be his advantage in foreign policy experience, so the debate was shaping up to be a toss-up. Obama's focus was to come off as presidential without seeming aloof, while McCain's focus was to come off as independent of the Bush administration yet still viable as a reformer.
The first half was dominated by the financial bailout and the mistakes that got us to this point. On this topic, I felt that both candidates were equally lukewarm. They both benefited from using sweeping generalities that sounded good but carried little substance. This shouldn't be a surprise, given that both candidates either have little knowledge of specifics or are too wary of hanging themselves with statements that may or may not have credibility in their logic. Obama had several golden opportunities where he could have piled on McCain and effectively associated him with the status quo, but he continually missed -- my impression was that Obama was overcoached on this topic and was (therefore) unable to put any type of constructive thought together that made sense. I think McCain sensed this early and pulled back, letting Obama trip all over himself, and it worked. Obama could not close his arguments, which is a serious flaw in his preparations. It will be interesting to see if his advisors will help him correct this or if they even notice it in time before the next debate. I was looking for any hook that I could grab onto, from either candidate, that demonstrated strength and determination in resolving the crisis, and I got nothing. Advantage: push.
The second half of the debate brought us back to the reality of the current foreign policy, and again I was amazed that Obama failed to jump on openings or create obstacles that would force McCain to back-pedal. McCain came off much better on this topic, but I felt his comments were slightly off-set by his demeanor. McCain rarely, if ever, looked at his opponent, giving an impression of being condescending and disrespectful. In post-debate coverage, GOP pundits were describing it as the warrior in McCain, working on a posture of stiff defense as he prepared for battle. Well, that's taking it to a ridiculous level, in my opinion. Most media experts know you must always remember that you are pitching to an audience of 6th grade level, so keep it simple, clear and repeat as necessary, but avoid being disdainful and bored. McCain, with his posturing, in my opinion, came off as stand-offish and, dare I say, elitist. Obama held up well with his knowledge of foreign matters, but again did not recognize the opportunities presented -- either he didn't see it or he was following a game plan and didn't want to stray from it. McCain seemed to have a better grasp of foreign policy, but his body language and snide comments negated any advantage gained. Obama seemed to be comfortable on this topic and came off very well, but he failed to gain ground because he refused to improvise on his remarks, thus letting McCain off the hook. Advantage: push.
Like most of America, I was hoping to see one of these guys take an early advantage, but it never materialized. I'm afraid that, because both didn't distance themselves from the other, the impression to America will be that, in light of the current events, we remain unconvinced and wary that anything can and will be resolved by either of these guys.
The first half was dominated by the financial bailout and the mistakes that got us to this point. On this topic, I felt that both candidates were equally lukewarm. They both benefited from using sweeping generalities that sounded good but carried little substance. This shouldn't be a surprise, given that both candidates either have little knowledge of specifics or are too wary of hanging themselves with statements that may or may not have credibility in their logic. Obama had several golden opportunities where he could have piled on McCain and effectively associated him with the status quo, but he continually missed -- my impression was that Obama was overcoached on this topic and was (therefore) unable to put any type of constructive thought together that made sense. I think McCain sensed this early and pulled back, letting Obama trip all over himself, and it worked. Obama could not close his arguments, which is a serious flaw in his preparations. It will be interesting to see if his advisors will help him correct this or if they even notice it in time before the next debate. I was looking for any hook that I could grab onto, from either candidate, that demonstrated strength and determination in resolving the crisis, and I got nothing. Advantage: push.
The second half of the debate brought us back to the reality of the current foreign policy, and again I was amazed that Obama failed to jump on openings or create obstacles that would force McCain to back-pedal. McCain came off much better on this topic, but I felt his comments were slightly off-set by his demeanor. McCain rarely, if ever, looked at his opponent, giving an impression of being condescending and disrespectful. In post-debate coverage, GOP pundits were describing it as the warrior in McCain, working on a posture of stiff defense as he prepared for battle. Well, that's taking it to a ridiculous level, in my opinion. Most media experts know you must always remember that you are pitching to an audience of 6th grade level, so keep it simple, clear and repeat as necessary, but avoid being disdainful and bored. McCain, with his posturing, in my opinion, came off as stand-offish and, dare I say, elitist. Obama held up well with his knowledge of foreign matters, but again did not recognize the opportunities presented -- either he didn't see it or he was following a game plan and didn't want to stray from it. McCain seemed to have a better grasp of foreign policy, but his body language and snide comments negated any advantage gained. Obama seemed to be comfortable on this topic and came off very well, but he failed to gain ground because he refused to improvise on his remarks, thus letting McCain off the hook. Advantage: push.
Like most of America, I was hoping to see one of these guys take an early advantage, but it never materialized. I'm afraid that, because both didn't distance themselves from the other, the impression to America will be that, in light of the current events, we remain unconvinced and wary that anything can and will be resolved by either of these guys.
Friday, September 26, 2008
Beggin' the Captain's Pardon
Was that the President of the United States on television the other night, explaining how MBS's work? Holy Crap -- now that's a sight that I would have never guessed would happen (although it needs to happen more often -- let's never forget the power and benefit of too much information). As a card-carrying member of the residential mortgage financing consultant community, I thoroughly enjoyed watching the POTUS run down the schematics of investments collateralized by Mortgage Backed Securities...until he directly blamed the sub prime house financing mismanagement for this crisis. Uh, No, Mr. President, that is not correct. This mess started long before 1999 when FNMA (Fannie Mae) and FHLMC (Freddie Mac) loosened their underwriting guidelines so that borrowers with less-than perfect credit can qualify for home mortgages.
Most of us who have worked (and/or are currently working) in the financial field know that this all started over 25 years ago on Wall Street when Salomon Brothers began the collateralized investment pools. If you really want a good "primer" on this subject, I suggest you buy the book "Liar's Poker" by Michael Lewis and give it a good read. You will come away with the knowledge that the seeds of nouveau greed were planted at that time, and it changed with the tides as each endeavor was crushed. Greed just moved and assimilated from one opportunity to another. From junk bonds to MBO's. From MBO's to Internet stocks. From Internet stocks to sub-prime housing. From sub-prime housing to Credit Default Swaps. And on it goes. Another good reference book is "Den of Thieves", by James B. Stewart. Check them out and tell me your thoughts -- I think you will agree with me that it's the system that's generating this economic virus.
The other day, I was talking to a guy who asked me what I did for a living. When I told him that I was a mortgage loan officer, he immediately recoiled and, in raised voice, said "so you're the guys that are to blame for this mess!" and gave me a sideways glare. I was not amused. I couldn't decide what disgusted me more: his utter ignorance or his easily manipulated viewpoint that (most certainly) came from some pablum morning "news" show. I shot back with comments about how he shouldn't be so quick to judge without knowing both sides of the story, and it's unfortunate that most people jump to conclusions before raising their level of awareness, especially when everyone knows that bad news sells more newspapers and gathers more viewers -- it would be great if people were more likely to question the media and seek the truth, if not both sides of the story. Then began the backpedaling, but it was too late for me; I marched on with the explanation that it's not my fault that John Q. Public doesn't understand how to budget his finances and not try to live beyond their means.
Affordable house financing was a boon to Wall Street, but we now see that the good times were all artificial. Loan officers worked hard to help more people reach the American Dream of homeownership. The only problem was that we did such a good job of restructuring personal debt service that Mr. and Mrs. Public became aggressive consumers. Let's get a newer car with more extras! Let's get a newer computer with more bells and whistles! Let's get that jumbotron-like flat screen tv! Ipods! Cell phones -- We need another, more expensive phone and an equally expensive minutes plan, because it's not enough to just have a land phone! Satellite or digital cable tv to go with that fancy flat screen tv! It goes on and on. Suddenly Mr. and Mrs. Public are deep in debt, and guess which payment doesn't get made? The largest one -- the mortgage payment. And most people don't realize that the absolute worst thing to do to damage your credit (outside of filing for bankruptcy) is to default on your mortgage payment. Most underwriting can forgive and work around history of late payments on consumer credit accounts (provided there's a reasonable explanation of a one-time event, in writing from the borrower), but there's no forgiveness for late mortgage payments. It's a message that gets easily lost in the moment, until the time comes when new credit is needed, and by then it's too late.
So I say to you, Mr. President, and also to you, members of Congress, in all due respect, please raise your level of awareness. It's not the mortgage crisis that's causing this sickness in the markets -- it's the system that allowed the greed to fester and manifest itself within our free market economy. Your $700 billion relief package is nothing more than a bandage on a deep flesh wound. The problem runs deeper than that.
The Wall Street financial crisis is blowing up in our faces...or so we are being told. Are you like me and are wondering just what exactly justifies a price tag of $700 BILLION dollars? Why not $500 billion? Why not $100 billion or even $7 billion? Plus, we're being told that this must happen NOW. What is the reference point? Why not disclose what's behind all this? Or are we not being told because no one really knows? Let me know what you think. More to come...
Most of us who have worked (and/or are currently working) in the financial field know that this all started over 25 years ago on Wall Street when Salomon Brothers began the collateralized investment pools. If you really want a good "primer" on this subject, I suggest you buy the book "Liar's Poker" by Michael Lewis and give it a good read. You will come away with the knowledge that the seeds of nouveau greed were planted at that time, and it changed with the tides as each endeavor was crushed. Greed just moved and assimilated from one opportunity to another. From junk bonds to MBO's. From MBO's to Internet stocks. From Internet stocks to sub-prime housing. From sub-prime housing to Credit Default Swaps. And on it goes. Another good reference book is "Den of Thieves", by James B. Stewart. Check them out and tell me your thoughts -- I think you will agree with me that it's the system that's generating this economic virus.
The other day, I was talking to a guy who asked me what I did for a living. When I told him that I was a mortgage loan officer, he immediately recoiled and, in raised voice, said "so you're the guys that are to blame for this mess!" and gave me a sideways glare. I was not amused. I couldn't decide what disgusted me more: his utter ignorance or his easily manipulated viewpoint that (most certainly) came from some pablum morning "news" show. I shot back with comments about how he shouldn't be so quick to judge without knowing both sides of the story, and it's unfortunate that most people jump to conclusions before raising their level of awareness, especially when everyone knows that bad news sells more newspapers and gathers more viewers -- it would be great if people were more likely to question the media and seek the truth, if not both sides of the story. Then began the backpedaling, but it was too late for me; I marched on with the explanation that it's not my fault that John Q. Public doesn't understand how to budget his finances and not try to live beyond their means.
Affordable house financing was a boon to Wall Street, but we now see that the good times were all artificial. Loan officers worked hard to help more people reach the American Dream of homeownership. The only problem was that we did such a good job of restructuring personal debt service that Mr. and Mrs. Public became aggressive consumers. Let's get a newer car with more extras! Let's get a newer computer with more bells and whistles! Let's get that jumbotron-like flat screen tv! Ipods! Cell phones -- We need another, more expensive phone and an equally expensive minutes plan, because it's not enough to just have a land phone! Satellite or digital cable tv to go with that fancy flat screen tv! It goes on and on. Suddenly Mr. and Mrs. Public are deep in debt, and guess which payment doesn't get made? The largest one -- the mortgage payment. And most people don't realize that the absolute worst thing to do to damage your credit (outside of filing for bankruptcy) is to default on your mortgage payment. Most underwriting can forgive and work around history of late payments on consumer credit accounts (provided there's a reasonable explanation of a one-time event, in writing from the borrower), but there's no forgiveness for late mortgage payments. It's a message that gets easily lost in the moment, until the time comes when new credit is needed, and by then it's too late.
So I say to you, Mr. President, and also to you, members of Congress, in all due respect, please raise your level of awareness. It's not the mortgage crisis that's causing this sickness in the markets -- it's the system that allowed the greed to fester and manifest itself within our free market economy. Your $700 billion relief package is nothing more than a bandage on a deep flesh wound. The problem runs deeper than that.
The Wall Street financial crisis is blowing up in our faces...or so we are being told. Are you like me and are wondering just what exactly justifies a price tag of $700 BILLION dollars? Why not $500 billion? Why not $100 billion or even $7 billion? Plus, we're being told that this must happen NOW. What is the reference point? Why not disclose what's behind all this? Or are we not being told because no one really knows? Let me know what you think. More to come...
Monday, September 15, 2008
Correction (already)
Lehman filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, not Ch. 7 as previously mentioned...
[dealbreaker.com]
All apologies...
[dealbreaker.com]
All apologies...
Monday Musings...
(trying to make this a regular event every Monday...)
Politics...Sports...Current Events...Entertainment...Potpourri...it's all here. Chime in anytime.
Current Events
Hurricane Ike was devastating to the Gulf coast, especially the Texas shoreline. Didn't get much rain or wind here in Charlotte, NC -- instead, we got incredible price-gouging at the gas pumps. I got a call late Thursday night from a good friend, saying the word was out that, starting Friday morning, the price of gas would go up up up, and there's also talk of rationing. I didn't agree with my friend; how could there be a problem when the cost of a barrel of oil was back down to $100 and there was no mention of gas shortages anywhere on CNBC or any other business channels, even in spite of the oncoming hurricane? I didn't believe it...until I set out on the road early Friday and saw the long lines at the pumps and the price of gas being .50 to 1.00 higher than what I paid for it only 24 hours earlier. I turned on the local newsradio station to hear that some places were up over $1/gallon. By the afternoon, news was coming in that various suburbs were completely out of gas and people were scrambling. We were now up to $5/gallon in some places and, as I drove past gas stations, there were still lines (at the places that still had gas), and I noticed that people were filling up small portable gas tanks in addition to their cars. Notice was served later in the evening that the state attorney general and the governor were going to investigate price-gouging complaints, but as of this writing, there's still no progress or mention of arrests (I don't know what more proof they needed, but then again, this state's administration is weak at best, so I'm not holding my breath). All this while the national average went up only $.06 at most. It will be interesting to see how fast the local price will come back to prior levels once the hurricane is gone -- I have a strong feeling that the price will take much longer to come down than it did when it went up. And throw in the prediction that no one will be prosecuted for gouging...
Meanwhile, there is the pressure cooker that is the Financial Crisis. On Friday, the word was out that Lehman was aggressively looking for a buyer. By end of business, there was not resolution, but the Feds were now involved and planned to discuss options over the weekend. Uh-oh -- Last time this happened, we lost Bear Stearns. If the Fed works weekends, someone's gonna pay. This morning we hear that Bank of America bought Merrill Lynch, and Lehman filed for Ch 7 BK. We were witness to periodic shots of Lehman employees shuffling out of the building with their work belongings in boxes. Ken Lewis, CEO of BofA, was shown with a happy face, and this was just 6 months after saying he had enough "fun" with investment banks and was no longer interested in acquiring another. Today, he's saying the timing was right and that Merrill is the world leader of investment banks, and that BofA will become the premier world financial leader. Yeah, right. Talk about lipstick on a pig -- he also said that he didn't want Lehman when the Feds said there'd be no arrangement like JPMorgan got with Bear Stearns, but it didn't matter anyway, because this will be a great deal. Ohhhhhhkayy...why do I get the image of Luka Brazzi holding a gun to Ken's head, over a table, saying either Ken's signature or Ken's brains would be on the purchase agreement for Merrill or Lehman? I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'...
Politics
Didja catch the SNL parody of Palin and HRC? Great stuff -- Tina Fey was golden. The skit hit the morning shows with lots of fanfare, and I even read where Palin once dressed as Tina Fey for Halloween! Talk about life imitating art imitating life...
Well, I see where Obama's camp has finally got it right and is focusing on McCain instead of being distracted by the shiny metal object that is Palin. You won't win if you keep fighting a girl. Only problem I have is that O's camp is issuing press releases that Mac is using dirty tactics and is being unprofessional with lies and mistruths -- dude, get a grip. No one likes a whining crybaby. Try coming out with substance, or do you have anything to offer? Give us some hope with some credible ideas or solutions. Stop with the finger-pointing or you'll lose...to an old man and a GIRL! bwah ha ha! America is getting beat up everywhere (or the perception is that we are), and we need to know if someone has the cajones to roll up sleeves and work this out -- seriously. I'm not saying I'm for one side or the other -- I'm still undecided, but this negative campaigning crap needs to stop. Again, we have candidates that want to bitch at each other instead of offering ideas or solutions, as if they're too scared to play their hand. Maybe there's a method to the madness. Maybe the hand can't be played too soon or else it gives the opposition more time to digest and counter it. Who wins? no one. Who loses? We all do.
Meanwhile, the market closes down over 500 points!!! Where is the damn bottom?? And now I see where Paulsen says the only way to pull us out of this mess is though the housing market. Wait...what? Dude, are you not aware that no one is buying houses right now? There's no reason to buy when everyone is still unsure of their financial future! Don't be waiting for the housing market to bail you out yet AGAIN. Try earning your salary and implement some policies that make sense for the country, long-term and short-term! Popular or not! Americans are tough and will take short-term pain if they know there will be a greater good served down the road. Just like any other sickness, the first and most important step is to admit that you are sick and acknowledge your weakness...
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Current Events
Hurricane Ike was devastating to the Gulf coast, especially the Texas shoreline. Didn't get much rain or wind here in Charlotte, NC -- instead, we got incredible price-gouging at the gas pumps. I got a call late Thursday night from a good friend, saying the word was out that, starting Friday morning, the price of gas would go up up up, and there's also talk of rationing. I didn't agree with my friend; how could there be a problem when the cost of a barrel of oil was back down to $100 and there was no mention of gas shortages anywhere on CNBC or any other business channels, even in spite of the oncoming hurricane? I didn't believe it...until I set out on the road early Friday and saw the long lines at the pumps and the price of gas being .50 to 1.00 higher than what I paid for it only 24 hours earlier. I turned on the local newsradio station to hear that some places were up over $1/gallon. By the afternoon, news was coming in that various suburbs were completely out of gas and people were scrambling. We were now up to $5/gallon in some places and, as I drove past gas stations, there were still lines (at the places that still had gas), and I noticed that people were filling up small portable gas tanks in addition to their cars. Notice was served later in the evening that the state attorney general and the governor were going to investigate price-gouging complaints, but as of this writing, there's still no progress or mention of arrests (I don't know what more proof they needed, but then again, this state's administration is weak at best, so I'm not holding my breath). All this while the national average went up only $.06 at most. It will be interesting to see how fast the local price will come back to prior levels once the hurricane is gone -- I have a strong feeling that the price will take much longer to come down than it did when it went up. And throw in the prediction that no one will be prosecuted for gouging...
Meanwhile, there is the pressure cooker that is the Financial Crisis. On Friday, the word was out that Lehman was aggressively looking for a buyer. By end of business, there was not resolution, but the Feds were now involved and planned to discuss options over the weekend. Uh-oh -- Last time this happened, we lost Bear Stearns. If the Fed works weekends, someone's gonna pay. This morning we hear that Bank of America bought Merrill Lynch, and Lehman filed for Ch 7 BK. We were witness to periodic shots of Lehman employees shuffling out of the building with their work belongings in boxes. Ken Lewis, CEO of BofA, was shown with a happy face, and this was just 6 months after saying he had enough "fun" with investment banks and was no longer interested in acquiring another. Today, he's saying the timing was right and that Merrill is the world leader of investment banks, and that BofA will become the premier world financial leader. Yeah, right. Talk about lipstick on a pig -- he also said that he didn't want Lehman when the Feds said there'd be no arrangement like JPMorgan got with Bear Stearns, but it didn't matter anyway, because this will be a great deal. Ohhhhhhkayy...why do I get the image of Luka Brazzi holding a gun to Ken's head, over a table, saying either Ken's signature or Ken's brains would be on the purchase agreement for Merrill or Lehman? I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin'...
Politics
Didja catch the SNL parody of Palin and HRC? Great stuff -- Tina Fey was golden. The skit hit the morning shows with lots of fanfare, and I even read where Palin once dressed as Tina Fey for Halloween! Talk about life imitating art imitating life...
Well, I see where Obama's camp has finally got it right and is focusing on McCain instead of being distracted by the shiny metal object that is Palin. You won't win if you keep fighting a girl. Only problem I have is that O's camp is issuing press releases that Mac is using dirty tactics and is being unprofessional with lies and mistruths -- dude, get a grip. No one likes a whining crybaby. Try coming out with substance, or do you have anything to offer? Give us some hope with some credible ideas or solutions. Stop with the finger-pointing or you'll lose...to an old man and a GIRL! bwah ha ha! America is getting beat up everywhere (or the perception is that we are), and we need to know if someone has the cajones to roll up sleeves and work this out -- seriously. I'm not saying I'm for one side or the other -- I'm still undecided, but this negative campaigning crap needs to stop. Again, we have candidates that want to bitch at each other instead of offering ideas or solutions, as if they're too scared to play their hand. Maybe there's a method to the madness. Maybe the hand can't be played too soon or else it gives the opposition more time to digest and counter it. Who wins? no one. Who loses? We all do.
Meanwhile, the market closes down over 500 points!!! Where is the damn bottom?? And now I see where Paulsen says the only way to pull us out of this mess is though the housing market. Wait...what? Dude, are you not aware that no one is buying houses right now? There's no reason to buy when everyone is still unsure of their financial future! Don't be waiting for the housing market to bail you out yet AGAIN. Try earning your salary and implement some policies that make sense for the country, long-term and short-term! Popular or not! Americans are tough and will take short-term pain if they know there will be a greater good served down the road. Just like any other sickness, the first and most important step is to admit that you are sick and acknowledge your weakness...
Saturday, September 13, 2008
Spin Cycle
Oh, how I love to see expert spin doctoring at works, especially in a political campaign. I want to share these tidbits with you:
1) from the very smart writers at The Daily Show: http://email.comedycentral.com/a/hBIxZceBAhkQSB7S4rVBNRz8AJN/cc10-1
Yes, the Dems have had their moments, too, but in light of todays' events, I found the aforementioned spins very amusing...
2) But by far, my most favorite clip from The Daily Show -- it blows me away: http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=184097&title=Bristol-Palin's-Choice
"another word for alternative...what's the word I'm looking for?"... bwah ha ha ha ha ha ha!
Thanks and a tip of the hat to Comedy Central and The Daily Show -- you made my week!
1) from the very smart writers at The Daily Show: http://email.comedycentral.com/a/hBIxZceBAhkQSB7S4rVBNRz8AJN/cc10-1
Yes, the Dems have had their moments, too, but in light of todays' events, I found the aforementioned spins very amusing...
2) But by far, my most favorite clip from The Daily Show -- it blows me away: http://www.thedailyshow.com/video/index.jhtml?videoId=184097&title=Bristol-Palin's-Choice
"another word for alternative...what's the word I'm looking for?"... bwah ha ha ha ha ha ha!
Thanks and a tip of the hat to Comedy Central and The Daily Show -- you made my week!
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